A automobile lower me off on the freeway the opposite day. The automobile was going almost 100 mph.
Was the automobile a brand new Porsche 911 GT3 or a used Toyota Camry?
The factor is, there are greater than 1,000 occasions as many Camrys on the highway. However our intuition is to select the vivid and distinctive reply.
The per capita crime fee in rural areas is usually dramatically (typically 5 or ten occasions) larger than it’s in most cities.
Alternatively, Alaska has much more millionaires per capita than most individuals would guess. That’s as a result of we underestimate the inhabitants, not as a result of there’s a very giant variety of millionaires.
Extra individuals would possibly result in extra cases, however what issues isn’t absolutely the quantity, it’s the proportion. New York is an extremely secure place to dwell.
We’re merely not naturally attuned to dividing what we discover by the possibilities we’ll see it… tales resonate with out regard for the denominator.
Flying throughout the nation is dramatically safer than driving there, however intuitively, it looks like the alternative should be true. And peer-reviewed medication is way extra more likely to treatment an sickness than an anecdote will.
The common TikTok or Fb submit is seen by just some individuals, despite the fact that it looks like those we’re seeing are seen by lots of people.
Actuality is lumpy, and taking a second to consider the supply of our story helps us get clear about what’s really occurring.